SASSA Grants and Voting. Social grants provide vulnerable individuals with the means to purchase basic goods and access essential services each month. Researchers have investigated the potential influence that the provision of these social grants might have on voter behavior.

Political Statements and Social Grants

Earlier this year, President Cyril Ramaphosa warned South Africans that social grants, along with NSFAS (National Student Financial Aid Scheme) funding, could disappear if the African National Congress (ANC) were voted out of power. Political analyst Prof. Andre Duvenhage suggested that the President’s statements were likely aimed at securing votes for the ANC in the 2024 elections. Duvenhage emphasized, “I have no doubt that Mr. Ramaphosa is using this as a mechanism to persuade people to vote for the ANC in government.”

Currently, 19 million people receive permanent social grants from SASSA (South African Social Security Agency), with an additional 9 million eligible for the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant. Furthermore, approximately one million students at tertiary institutions are expected to receive comprehensive NSFAS bursaries.

Duvenhage acknowledged concerns about the provision of social assistance if a new party takes power, which might implement different policies. However, he contended that most political parties in South Africa are committed to democratic and developmental goals, ensuring continued social support for the poor regardless of which party governs.

Do Social Grants Impact Voting Behavior?

Researchers Leila Patel and Yolanda Sadie from the University of Johannesburg conducted a study on voting behavior in South Africa, examining whether social grant recipients reward political parties with votes. Their research, which began in 2017, utilized data from five nationally representative surveys. The latest survey, conducted in 2023, investigates factors influencing voter choices for the 2024 national elections, particularly the relationship between social grants and voter behavior.

From 2017 to 2020, the study found that simply receiving a grant did not sway voters towards any particular party. However, grant recipients showed a tendency to support the ANC if they feared losing their grants under a different government. This trend shifted dramatically in the 2023 survey.

In 2023, the fear of losing grants no longer significantly influenced voter decisions. This change is attributed to the inclusion of young people in grant programs during the COVID-19 pandemic with the introduction of the SRD Grant. The study also highlighted the substantial growth of South Africa’s social grants system, which expanded from covering 7.2% of the population in 1995 to 47% in 2022. The introduction of the SRD grant in 2020 further extended support to youth and unemployed adults.

Despite the wide reach of these grants, their relatively low monetary value often limits their impact on voting behavior. The latest survey indicates that while fear of losing grants previously drove support for the ANC, this is no longer the case. According to the survey, 53% of grant recipients in 2023 indicated they would vote for opposition parties, a significant increase from 26% in 2020.

Researchers suggest this shift may be due to increased confidence among recipients in their right to social assistance, reducing fears of grant loss if they vote for opposition parties. Additionally, more opposition parties, such as the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters, endorse social grants, which may also impact voter sentiment.

Socio-Economic Concerns and Voting Behavior

Socio-economic concerns remain paramount for voters. The top reasons for party choice in the latest survey were job creation (55%), improving lives (49%), improving service delivery (48%), and paying social grants (44%). While social grants are a factor, governance, corruption, party loyalty, leadership, and trust in President Ramaphosa also play significant roles according to the study.

Patel and Sadie conclude that a combination of these factors will drive voter decisions in the 2024 elections.

National Elections 2024

The ANC has accepted the outcome of the election as the will of the people, confirming that the party is the largest in the country, but did not receive a majority of the votes. The ANC achieved around 40% of the vote.

Conclusion

The research underscores the evolving dynamics of voter behavior in South Africa, particularly the impact of social grants. While fear of losing social assistance previously influenced support for the ANC, this factor has diminished in recent years. The inclusion of younger recipients in grant programs and the endorsement of social grants by opposition parties have contributed to this shift. Moving forward, socio-economic concerns, governance, and party policies will play critical roles in shaping voter choices in South Africa’s elections.